Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a modest increase of approximately 1% over the past week, suggesting a balance between market demand and supply. Analysts predict a relatively calm Easter weekend; however, opinions are split regarding Bitcoin’s upcoming price movement. Network economist Timothy Peterson noted that the US High Yield Index Effective Yield has surpassed 8%. Historically, there have been 38 instances of this since 2010, with Bitcoin showing a 71% increase three months later in those cases. The average gain has been around 31%, with the most significant decline being -16%. Given this historical context, Peterson forecasts that Bitcoin could range between $75,000 and $138,000 over the next three months.
Market Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Direction
Despite some optimism, not all analysts are bullish. Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone recently expressed concerns on X, suggesting that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index may trend downward towards their respective 200-week simple moving averages, which have historically served as support during significant market corrections. Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA is positioned near $46,000.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin has maintained its position above the 20-day exponential moving average (currently at $83,704) for several days. However, bulls have struggled to challenge the 200-day simple moving average, which stands at $88,098. The inability to initiate a rally could create downward pressure on the BTC/USDT trading pair in the near future. A decline below the 20-day EMA would suggest a loss of momentum from the bulls, potentially leading to a drop to $78,500, and subsequently to the crucial support level at $73,777.
To avoid further declines, buyers must act quickly to push the price above the 200-day SMA, signaling the end of the corrective phase. If successful, the price could surge to $95,000 and eventually reach the psychological milestone of $100,000.
Trading Range and Market Volatility
Currently, Bitcoin trades within a narrow range of $83,000 to $86,000. Failing to break through this resistance may lead short-term bulls to take profits, which could pull the price below the moving averages. As trading within this range is likely to remain unpredictable and volatile, a break and close below it could initiate a downward movement towards $80,000, followed by $78,500. Conversely, a breakout above $86,000 could see the price rise to $89,000.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB (BNB) is encountering resistance at its downtrend line, though it is encouraging that bulls have not yielded ground to bears. The moving averages have flattened, and the RSI is near equilibrium, indicating a balance in supply and demand. Should buyers manage to push the price above the downtrend line, the BNB/USDT pair could see a rally reaching $644. However, if a sharp decline occurs from the downtrend line, it would indicate that bears are active at elevated levels. A fall below $576 could result in the pair remaining within the triangle formation for an extended period.
Short-Term Trading Dynamics
The pair has approached the downtrend line, where bears are expected to mount a strong defense. Critical support is found at the 50-SMA and then at $576. A rebound off this support would indicate buying interest on dips, enhancing the likelihood of a breakout above the downtrend line, which could push the price to $620. Conversely, a break and close below $576 would signal that buyers have surrendered, potentially pushing the price down to $566 and prolonging the triangle formation.
Hyperliquid Price Analysis
Hyperliquid (HYPE) recently surged above the $17.35 resistance on April 19; however, bulls are now facing selling pressure at higher levels. If the price rebounds from $17.35, it would suggest that minor dips are being bought up, paving the way for a potential rally to $21 and eventually to $25. On the flip side, a break and close below $17.35 would indicate that bears are attempting to entrap aggressive bulls, with the next support level being the 20-day EMA at $15.32. Should the price bounce off this EMA, bulls will likely attempt to overcome the obstacle at $17.35 once more.
The optimistic outlook could be invalidated if the HYPE/USDT pair dips below the moving averages.
Trading Activity in Bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) has broken through the moving averages and reached the downtrend line, where bears are expected to mount a considerable defense. If the price retreats from the downtrend line, the TAO/USDT pair will likely find support at the 20-day EMA ($249). A robust bounce off this EMA would increase the chances of a rally past the downtrend line, potentially driving the price up to $360. Conversely, if the price declines and falls below the 20-day EMA, it would suggest that bears remain in control, and the pair may drop to the $222 support level, where buyers are anticipated to step in.
Render Price Analysis
Render (RNDR) has successfully breached the overhead resistance at $4.22, signaling a potential comeback for bulls. A close above this level will complete a bullish double-bottom pattern, with resistance expected at $4.83, which is likely to be surpassed. The RNDR/USDT pair could then aim for a target of $5.94. The critical support to monitor on the downside is the 20-day EMA at $3.72. A break below the moving averages would indicate that the market has rejected the breakout above $4.22, potentially leading to a decline to the support level at $2.50.
If the pair holds above the breakout level at $4.22, it signifies bullish momentum. Should it rebound strongly and rise above $4.48, it suggests that the bulls have established a new support level, which could initiate an upward trend toward $5. However, if the price falls and breaks below the moving averages, it may indicate a bull trap, leading the price to drop to the critical support level at $3.60.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment carries risk, and readers should conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions.
