Bitcoin has been experiencing a period of consolidation within a clearly defined range, constrained by its 100 and 200-day moving averages. Recently, the cryptocurrency has shown a slight recovery towards the upper boundary of this range, indicating potential early signs of renewed strength. While further consolidation within this area remains probable, a genuine breakout could initiate a sustained directional movement.
Technical Analysis Overview
On the daily chart, Bitcoin (BTC) remains tethered to a significant trading range. The 200-day moving average, located near $109,000, serves as a robust support level, while the 100-day moving average, positioned around $115,000, acts as immediate resistance. Following a rebound from the demand zone at $108,000, the price has moved closer to the upper boundary of this range. The recovery candles indicate a positive sentiment, but the $115,000 to $116,000 area, which coincides with an institutional supply zone, poses the first major challenge for bullish momentum. A decisive close above this range could pave the way for a retest of the liquidity zone between $120,000 and $122,000, potentially leading to a revisit of the all-time high of $126,000. On the other hand, a rejection at the 100-day moving average might trigger a pullback towards the $108,000 accumulation zone, which has been a consistent high-liquidity demand base underpinning recent rebounds.
Short-Term Chart Analysis
The 4-hour chart illustrates Bitcoin’s movement within a symmetrical triangle pattern, following a notable recovery from the institutional demand zone between $102,000 and $104,000. This triangular structure represents a phase of volatility compression, often preceding a significant breakout. Currently, the cryptocurrency is attempting to breach the upper trendline, which would confirm a shift towards bullish momentum, targeting the liquidity zone of $120,000 to $122,000. However, if the price fails to maintain above this resistance and another lower high forms, it could lead to renewed declines towards the $108,000 support for a potential base retest. Although momentum appears constructive, it remains delicate, indicating the market is approaching a crucial decision point where an increase in volatility is likely.
On-Chain Insights
The realized price for mid-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for 3 to 6 months—continues to function as a pivotal market indicator, historically serving as both support and resistance during significant market shifts. This metric represents the average purchase price of coins held by this group, providing key insights into current market sentiment. Bitcoin’s bounce from $102,000 has pushed the price slightly above the realized price of $109,000, placing mid-term holders back in a marginal profit position. This shift usually alleviates short-term selling pressure and reflects a growing confidence among market participants. The $114,000 threshold now stands out as a critical level. A confirmed breakout and sustained movement above this price could bolster confidence among these holders, potentially triggering a new bullish phase towards fresh all-time highs. Conversely, failing to hold above this level could shift sentiment back towards caution, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to deeper corrective moves within its existing range.
Disclaimer
The information provided is based on insights from various writers and does not necessarily reflect the views of CryptoPotato regarding investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment choices. Use the information at your own risk.
